Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Palma Serasih Tbk (PSGO.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$163.97 - $242.18$201.43
Multi-Stage$300.26 - $330.00$314.84
Blended Fair Value$258.14
Current Price$220.00
Upside17.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%8.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)391,880.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)150,800.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)241,080.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)78,376.0648,985.0429,391.02
Cash Retained (M)241,080.27241,080.27241,080.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-78,376.06-48,985.04-29,391.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)162,704.20192,095.23211,689.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18,850.0018,850.0018,850.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.6310.1911.23
LTM Dividend per Share8.008.008.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.6310.1911.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.6318.1919.23
WACC / Discount Rate7.94%7.94%7.94%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$163.97$201.43$242.18
Upside / Downside-25.47%-8.44%10.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)391,880.32387,961.51384,081.90380,241.08376,438.67372,674.28383,854.51
Payout Ratio38.48%48.78%59.09%69.39%79.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)150,800.05189,266.71226,948.96263,858.64300,007.43335,406.85355,065.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.94%7.94%7.94%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)173,572.68175,343.83177,114.98
Year 2 PV (M)190,872.11194,787.33198,742.30
Year 3 PV (M)203,513.26209,807.05216,229.27
Year 4 PV (M)212,207.40221,002.41230,068.01
Year 5 PV (M)217,574.30228,903.90240,700.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,662,167.704,904,937.595,157,717.05
Equity Value (M)5,659,907.455,934,782.106,220,572.23
Shares Outstanding (M)18,850.0018,850.0018,850.00
Fair Value$300.26$314.84$330.00
Upside / Downside36.48%43.11%50.00%

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