Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$72.55 - $151.71$102.47
Multi-Stage$52.86 - $57.75$55.26
Blended Fair Value$78.87
Current Price$32.36
Upside143.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.66%10.06%0.490.000.000.000.330.230.150.190.180.16
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%46.00%51.16%-21.59%7.30%8.77%-12.80%
Dividend Yield--1.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.76%1.00%0.28%0.41%0.60%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)163.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)143.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.7720.4812.29
Cash Retained (M)143.27143.27143.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.77-20.48-12.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)110.50122.79130.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.6141.6141.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.662.953.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.662.953.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.153.453.64
WACC / Discount Rate10.08%10.08%10.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$72.55$102.47$151.71
Upside / Downside124.20%216.67%368.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)163.87174.52185.86197.95210.81224.51231.25
Payout Ratio12.57%28.05%43.54%59.03%74.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.6048.9680.93116.84157.08202.06213.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.08%10.08%10.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)44.0644.4844.89
Year 2 PV (M)65.5366.7868.04
Year 3 PV (M)85.1587.5990.08
Year 4 PV (M)103.01106.97111.05
Year 5 PV (M)119.24125.00130.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,782.611,868.711,958.10
Equity Value (M)2,199.602,299.532,403.15
Shares Outstanding (M)41.6141.6141.61
Fair Value$52.86$55.26$57.75
Upside / Downside63.36%70.78%78.47%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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