Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Prima Globalindo Logistik Tbk (PPGL.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$172.55 - $323.34$233.94
Multi-Stage$140.39 - $152.78$146.47
Blended Fair Value$190.21
Current Price$110.00
Upside72.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS38.40%0.00%10.544.008.990.001.952.070.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--163.42%-55.50%0.00%-100.00%-6.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--10.43%4.60%7.43%0.00%2.14%1.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,493.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,041.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,452.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,698.631,061.64636.99
Cash Retained (M)3,452.053,452.053,452.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,698.63-1,061.64-636.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,753.422,390.412,815.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)771.18771.18771.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.273.103.65
LTM Dividend per Share6.546.546.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.273.103.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.819.6410.19
WACC / Discount Rate10.89%10.89%10.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$172.55$233.94$323.34
Upside / Downside56.86%112.67%193.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,493.159,045.209,633.1410,259.2910,926.1511,636.3511,985.44
Payout Ratio59.35%65.48%71.61%77.74%83.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,041.105,923.156,898.577,975.789,163.8710,472.7111,086.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.89%10.89%10.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,291.465,341.615,391.77
Year 2 PV (M)5,505.595,610.465,716.31
Year 3 PV (M)5,686.435,849.676,016.00
Year 4 PV (M)5,836.716,061.176,292.05
Year 5 PV (M)5,958.976,246.796,545.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)79,982.9383,846.1387,857.19
Equity Value (M)108,262.09112,955.84117,818.95
Shares Outstanding (M)771.18771.18771.18
Fair Value$140.39$146.47$152.78
Upside / Downside27.62%33.16%38.89%

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