Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$900.17 - $1,060.55$993.89
Multi-Stage$284.86 - $312.29$298.32
Blended Fair Value$646.11
Current Price$200.94
Upside221.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.09%7.72%1.641.521.271.201.061.061.011.090.910.88
YoY Growth--8.02%19.71%6.10%12.86%-0.23%4.71%-6.62%19.35%3.54%12.68%
Dividend Yield--0.73%1.07%1.05%1.61%1.19%1.85%1.95%2.23%1.81%2.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,425.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,370.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,055.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,085.001,928.131,156.88
Cash Retained (M)10,055.0010,055.0010,055.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,085.00-1,928.13-1,156.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,970.008,126.888,898.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,892.502,892.502,892.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.412.813.08
LTM Dividend per Share1.861.861.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.412.813.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.274.674.93
WACC / Discount Rate4.96%4.96%4.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$900.17$993.89$1,060.55
Upside / Downside347.98%394.62%427.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,425.0016,427.6317,495.4218,632.6219,843.7421,133.5921,767.59
Payout Ratio34.81%45.85%56.89%67.93%78.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,370.007,532.219,952.8212,656.2915,669.1619,020.2320,135.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.96%4.96%4.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7,109.107,176.497,243.87
Year 2 PV (M)8,866.069,034.949,205.40
Year 3 PV (M)10,641.0210,946.4811,257.74
Year 4 PV (M)12,434.1112,912.2913,404.13
Year 5 PV (M)14,245.4714,933.5415,647.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)770,664.60807,887.99846,536.01
Equity Value (M)823,960.37862,891.73903,295.09
Shares Outstanding (M)2,892.502,892.502,892.50
Fair Value$284.86$298.32$312.29
Upside / Downside41.76%48.46%55.41%

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