Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nava Nakorn Public Company Limited (NNCL.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.26 - $4.69$3.18
Multi-Stage$3.05 - $3.34$3.20
Blended Fair Value$3.19
Current Price$1.30
Upside145.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.10%3.80%0.110.100.100.160.070.090.080.040.000.00
YoY Growth--10.00%-6.69%-34.79%112.79%-14.18%12.50%116.22%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--6.48%4.95%5.14%6.41%2.87%6.08%4.22%2.13%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)273.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)225.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.7834.2420.54
Cash Retained (M)48.5948.5948.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.78-34.24-20.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)-6.1914.3528.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,134.662,134.662,134.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate2.18%3.18%4.18%
Fair Value$2.26$3.18$4.69
Upside / Downside73.92%144.88%260.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)273.89282.59291.57300.83310.39320.25329.85
Payout Ratio82.26%83.81%85.36%86.90%88.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)225.30236.83248.87261.43274.54288.22305.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate2.18%3.18%4.18%
Year 1 PV (M)219.57221.72223.87
Year 2 PV (M)213.92218.13222.38
Year 3 PV (M)208.34214.52220.82
Year 4 PV (M)202.84210.90219.20
Year 5 PV (M)197.43207.28217.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,478.155,751.526,035.70
Equity Value (M)6,520.266,824.087,139.49
Shares Outstanding (M)2,134.662,134.662,134.66
Fair Value$3.05$3.20$3.34
Upside / Downside134.96%145.91%157.27%

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