Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ingles Markets, Incorporated (IMKTA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.94 - $55.55$45.74
Multi-Stage$81.00 - $89.31$85.07
Blended Fair Value$65.41
Current Price$68.71
Upside-4.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.16%-0.56%0.650.650.650.650.660.680.680.680.680.68
YoY Growth--0.01%0.06%0.05%-2.97%-2.90%0.01%0.02%0.04%0.04%0.12%
Dividend Yield--0.94%0.99%0.75%0.65%0.76%1.68%1.43%2.58%1.98%1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)83.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.7210.456.27
Cash Retained (M)71.3271.3271.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.72-10.45-6.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.6060.8765.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.9918.9918.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.873.203.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.650.650.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.873.203.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.523.854.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate-2.56%-1.56%-0.56%
Fair Value$36.94$45.74$55.55
Upside / Downside-46.24%-33.42%-19.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)83.5982.2981.0179.7478.5077.2879.59
Payout Ratio14.68%29.74%44.81%59.87%74.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.2724.4736.3047.7458.8269.5573.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate-2.56%-1.56%-0.56%
Year 1 PV (M)22.7022.9323.16
Year 2 PV (M)31.2231.8632.52
Year 3 PV (M)38.0939.2740.48
Year 4 PV (M)43.5245.3447.21
Year 5 PV (M)47.7250.2252.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,355.261,426.241,500.17
Equity Value (M)1,538.511,615.871,696.36
Shares Outstanding (M)18.9918.9918.99
Fair Value$81.00$85.07$89.31
Upside / Downside17.88%23.81%29.98%

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