Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Indonesia Fibreboard Industry Tbk (IFII.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$214.64 - $333.38$269.56
Multi-Stage$508.01 - $558.73$532.87
Blended Fair Value$401.22
Current Price$230.00
Upside74.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%10.002.004.000.005.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--400.00%-50.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.55%1.32%2.09%0.00%3.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)214,406.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)150,592.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)63,814.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42,881.2226,800.7616,080.46
Cash Retained (M)63,814.0963,814.0963,814.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-42,881.22-26,800.76-16,080.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)20,932.8737,013.3347,733.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,412.009,412.009,412.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.223.935.07
LTM Dividend per Share16.0016.0016.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.223.935.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend18.2219.9321.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$214.64$269.56$333.38
Upside / Downside-6.68%17.20%44.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)214,406.09212,262.03210,139.41208,038.02205,957.64203,898.06210,015.00
Payout Ratio70.24%74.19%78.14%82.09%86.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)150,592.00157,476.03164,207.32170,788.24177,221.11183,508.25194,263.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)146,618.23148,114.33149,610.44
Year 2 PV (M)142,344.12145,263.93148,213.37
Year 3 PV (M)137,841.03142,103.85146,453.67
Year 4 PV (M)133,170.96138,690.27144,379.40
Year 5 PV (M)128,387.63135,073.07142,034.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,093,028.694,306,162.194,528,083.33
Equity Value (M)4,781,390.665,015,407.655,258,774.37
Shares Outstanding (M)9,412.009,412.009,412.00
Fair Value$508.01$532.87$558.73
Upside / Downside120.87%131.68%142.93%

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