Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Global Industrial Company (GIC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.45 - $17.88$15.10
Multi-Stage$20.88 - $22.88$21.86
Blended Fair Value$18.48
Current Price$36.67
Upside-49.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-31.87%0.00%1.000.800.721.633.506.812.840.340.100.00
YoY Growth--25.49%10.87%-55.84%-53.46%-48.66%139.34%740.77%251.35%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.46%1.81%2.68%5.05%8.50%38.40%12.31%1.19%0.87%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.648.535.12
Cash Retained (M)28.4028.4028.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.64-8.53-5.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.7619.8823.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)38.4338.4338.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.520.61
LTM Dividend per Share1.041.041.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.520.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.421.551.64
WACC / Discount Rate9.18%9.18%9.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.45$15.10$17.88
Upside / Downside-66.06%-58.81%-51.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68.2067.5266.8466.1765.5164.8666.80
Payout Ratio58.36%64.69%71.01%77.34%83.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.8043.6747.4751.1854.8258.3761.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.18%9.18%9.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)39.6040.0040.41
Year 2 PV (M)39.0239.8240.63
Year 3 PV (M)38.1539.3340.53
Year 4 PV (M)37.0438.5840.16
Year 5 PV (M)35.7637.6339.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)612.63644.53677.75
Equity Value (M)802.20839.89879.04
Shares Outstanding (M)38.4338.4338.43
Fair Value$20.88$21.86$22.88
Upside / Downside-43.07%-40.39%-37.61%

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