Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$358.99 - $1,031.21$562.16
Multi-Stage$241.14 - $263.47$252.11
Blended Fair Value$407.13
Current Price$143.10
Upside184.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS69.74%0.00%5.424.965.401.070.810.380.130.000.000.00
YoY Growth--9.28%-8.14%403.85%32.20%110.71%202.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.39%2.49%4.00%0.78%1.10%1.47%0.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,196.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,132.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,064.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)839.20524.50314.70
Cash Retained (M)3,064.003,064.003,064.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-839.20-524.50-314.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,224.802,539.502,749.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)290.95290.95290.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.658.739.45
LTM Dividend per Share3.893.893.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.658.739.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.5412.6213.34
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$358.99$562.16$1,031.21
Upside / Downside150.86%292.84%620.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,196.004,468.744,759.215,068.565,398.015,748.885,921.35
Payout Ratio26.98%39.58%52.19%64.79%77.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,132.001,768.842,483.683,283.984,177.835,174.005,477.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,609.161,624.421,639.67
Year 2 PV (M)2,055.512,094.662,134.19
Year 3 PV (M)2,472.502,543.482,615.80
Year 4 PV (M)2,861.532,971.583,084.77
Year 5 PV (M)3,223.943,379.663,541.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,937.3460,735.7463,641.24
Equity Value (M)70,160.0073,349.5476,657.00
Shares Outstanding (M)290.95290.95290.95
Fair Value$241.14$252.11$263.47
Upside / Downside68.51%76.18%84.12%

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