Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Equity Commonwealth (EQC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - OfficeSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.64 - $0.83$0.74
Multi-Stage$1.96 - $2.19$2.07
Blended Fair Value$1.41
Current Price$1.61
Upside-12.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-53.19%-10.62%0.094.331.040.063.953.962.820.000.000.00
YoY Growth---97.94%317.32%1,762.53%-98.59%-0.20%40.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--5.53%23.09%4.99%0.20%14.22%12.46%8.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)23.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.732.961.77
Cash Retained (M)21.6321.6321.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.73-2.96-1.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.9018.6719.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)108.19108.19108.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-16.21%-15.21%-14.21%
Fair Value$0.64$0.74$0.83
Upside / Downside-60.26%-54.01%-48.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)23.6620.0617.0114.4312.2310.3710.68
Payout Ratio8.60%24.88%41.16%57.44%73.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.044.997.008.299.029.339.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-16.21%-15.21%-14.21%
Year 1 PV (M)4.624.684.73
Year 2 PV (M)6.016.156.30
Year 3 PV (M)6.586.827.06
Year 4 PV (M)6.636.957.29
Year 5 PV (M)6.366.757.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)181.54192.63204.26
Equity Value (M)211.74223.98236.80
Shares Outstanding (M)108.19108.19108.19
Fair Value$1.96$2.07$2.19
Upside / Downside21.56%28.59%35.95%

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