Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Dynagas LNG Partners LP (DLNG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.21 - $50.99$36.05
Multi-Stage$37.65 - $41.34$39.46
Blended Fair Value$37.76
Current Price$3.51
Upside975.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.05%-10.13%0.400.320.320.320.000.451.321.821.821.70
YoY Growth--27.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-66.15%-27.57%0.00%7.47%44.63%
Dividend Yield--10.70%10.95%11.15%7.87%0.00%41.79%58.97%17.64%10.35%14.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)60.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.007.504.50
Cash Retained (M)41.3641.3641.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.00-7.50-4.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.3633.8636.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)36.6536.6536.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.800.921.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.800.921.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.311.431.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.70%6.70%6.70%
Growth Rate1.62%2.62%3.62%
Fair Value$26.21$36.05$50.99
Upside / Downside646.82%927.16%1,352.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)60.0161.5963.2064.8666.5668.3170.36
Payout Ratio31.08%42.86%54.65%66.43%78.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.6526.4034.5443.0952.0661.4865.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.70%6.70%6.70%
Growth Rate1.62%2.62%3.62%
Year 1 PV (M)24.5024.7424.98
Year 2 PV (M)29.7530.3430.93
Year 3 PV (M)34.4435.4736.52
Year 4 PV (M)38.6240.1641.75
Year 5 PV (M)42.3344.4546.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,210.391,271.131,334.28
Equity Value (M)1,380.031,446.291,515.12
Shares Outstanding (M)36.6536.6536.65
Fair Value$37.65$39.46$41.34
Upside / Downside972.64%1,024.14%1,077.64%

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