Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Cedar Woods Properties Limited (CWP.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.27 - $89.98$58.22
Multi-Stage$28.78 - $31.45$30.09
Blended Fair Value$44.16
Current Price$7.09
Upside522.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS3.16%1.84%0.270.150.270.210.120.230.300.240.270.26
YoY Growth--80.20%-45.32%29.66%70.39%-46.34%-24.72%27.48%-11.59%1.79%18.95%
Dividend Yield--3.77%3.21%5.39%5.68%1.83%4.36%5.33%4.13%5.17%6.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)168.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)142.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.6821.0512.63
Cash Retained (M)142.02142.02142.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.68-21.05-12.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.34120.97129.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)83.4483.4483.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.301.451.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.301.451.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.611.771.87
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$40.27$58.22$89.98
Upside / Downside467.94%721.18%1,169.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)168.41179.36191.02203.43216.66230.74237.66
Payout Ratio15.67%30.54%45.40%60.27%75.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.3954.7786.72122.60162.78207.66219.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)49.4449.9150.38
Year 2 PV (M)70.6872.0373.38
Year 3 PV (M)90.2192.7995.43
Year 4 PV (M)108.12112.28116.55
Year 5 PV (M)124.52130.53136.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,958.522,053.122,151.33
Equity Value (M)2,401.492,510.662,623.87
Shares Outstanding (M)83.4483.4483.44
Fair Value$28.78$30.09$31.45
Upside / Downside305.94%324.39%343.53%

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