Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais (CSMG3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97.33 - $325.96$159.00
Multi-Stage$63.70 - $69.58$66.59
Blended Fair Value$112.79
Current Price$34.49
Upside227.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS40.42%19.34%1.942.050.360.152.160.350.740.320.150.01
YoY Growth---5.39%471.06%137.29%-93.00%508.56%-51.88%133.31%113.66%1,361.08%-96.94%
Dividend Yield--9.81%9.53%2.28%1.10%14.30%2.60%3.58%1.97%1.00%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,350.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)502.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)848.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)270.14168.84101.30
Cash Retained (M)848.09848.09848.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-270.14-168.84-101.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)577.95679.25746.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)379.60379.60379.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.521.791.97
LTM Dividend per Share1.321.321.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.521.791.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.853.113.29
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$97.33$159.00$325.96
Upside / Downside182.21%361.00%845.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,350.711,438.511,532.011,631.591,737.641,850.591,906.11
Payout Ratio37.21%47.77%58.33%68.88%79.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)502.62687.16893.571,123.911,380.421,665.531,763.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)626.89632.83638.77
Year 2 PV (M)743.69757.86772.16
Year 3 PV (M)853.35877.85902.81
Year 4 PV (M)956.17992.951,030.77
Year 5 PV (M)1,052.471,103.301,156.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,947.2820,910.7421,911.07
Equity Value (M)24,179.8525,275.5226,411.66
Shares Outstanding (M)379.60379.60379.60
Fair Value$63.70$66.59$69.58
Upside / Downside84.69%93.06%101.73%

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