Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CD Private Equity Fund III (CD3.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.55 - $2.34$1.92
Multi-Stage$3.30 - $3.62$3.46
Blended Fair Value$2.69
Current Price$1.16
Upside131.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.370.560.660.240.000.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-34.05%-14.35%172.92%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%25.17%39.79%41.19%24.24%0.00%0.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.601.630.98
Cash Retained (M)1.121.121.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.60-1.63-0.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.48-0.510.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)72.0372.0372.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.55$1.92$2.34
Upside / Downside33.66%65.85%101.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.0012.8712.7412.6212.4912.3612.74
Payout Ratio91.41%91.13%90.85%90.56%90.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.8811.7311.5811.4211.2811.1311.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)10.8410.9511.06
Year 2 PV (M)9.8810.0910.29
Year 3 PV (M)9.019.299.58
Year 4 PV (M)8.228.568.91
Year 5 PV (M)7.507.898.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)192.28202.29212.72
Equity Value (M)237.73249.07260.85
Shares Outstanding (M)72.0372.0372.03
Fair Value$3.30$3.46$3.62
Upside / Downside184.53%198.10%212.20%

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