Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25,577.60 - $30,140.95$28,243.60
Multi-Stage$16,930.23 - $18,599.49$17,749.10
Blended Fair Value$22,996.35
Current Price$5,399.27
Upside325.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%35.660.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.77%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,044.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,230.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,814.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,008.80630.50378.30
Cash Retained (M)3,814.003,814.003,814.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,008.80-630.50-378.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,805.203,183.503,435.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.9232.9232.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share85.2096.69104.35
LTM Dividend per Share37.3637.3637.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share85.2096.69104.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend122.56134.05141.71
WACC / Discount Rate1.94%1.94%1.94%
Growth Rate4.35%5.35%6.35%
Fair Value$25,577.60$28,243.60$30,140.95
Upside / Downside373.72%423.10%458.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,044.005,313.675,597.765,897.046,212.316,544.456,740.78
Payout Ratio24.39%37.51%50.63%63.75%76.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,230.001,993.072,834.223,759.614,775.855,890.006,235.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.94%1.94%1.94%
Growth Rate4.35%5.35%6.35%
Year 1 PV (M)1,936.551,955.111,973.67
Year 2 PV (M)2,675.762,727.292,779.31
Year 3 PV (M)3,448.773,548.873,650.90
Year 4 PV (M)4,256.754,422.294,592.61
Year 5 PV (M)5,100.955,350.105,608.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)539,992.04566,367.74593,764.17
Equity Value (M)557,410.82584,371.41612,369.56
Shares Outstanding (M)32.9232.9232.92
Fair Value$16,930.23$17,749.10$18,599.49
Upside / Downside213.57%228.73%244.48%

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