Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Arrow Syndicate Public Company Limited (ARROW.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.55 - $3.47$3.02
Multi-Stage$4.29 - $4.69$4.49
Blended Fair Value$3.75
Current Price$5.10
Upside-26.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.66%1.18%0.350.350.450.450.550.490.490.590.590.26
YoY Growth--0.00%-22.22%0.60%-18.04%10.50%0.01%-16.34%0.51%129.77%-17.93%
Dividend Yield--6.73%5.34%6.29%5.42%6.42%8.37%5.78%4.84%3.39%1.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)129.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)89.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.9116.199.71
Cash Retained (M)39.6239.6239.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.91-16.19-9.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.7123.4229.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)256.90256.90256.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.090.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.090.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.440.47
WACC / Discount Rate10.80%10.80%10.80%
Growth Rate-4.32%-3.32%-2.32%
Fair Value$2.55$3.02$3.47
Upside / Downside-49.97%-40.80%-31.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)129.53125.22121.06117.03113.14109.38112.66
Payout Ratio69.42%73.53%77.65%81.77%85.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)89.9192.0894.0095.6997.1798.44104.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.80%10.80%10.80%
Growth Rate-4.32%-3.32%-2.32%
Year 1 PV (M)82.2483.1083.96
Year 2 PV (M)74.9976.5778.16
Year 3 PV (M)68.1970.3572.55
Year 4 PV (M)61.8464.4767.18
Year 5 PV (M)55.9658.9562.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)759.36799.88842.12
Equity Value (M)1,102.591,153.321,206.03
Shares Outstanding (M)256.90256.90256.90
Fair Value$4.29$4.49$4.69
Upside / Downside-15.84%-11.97%-7.95%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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