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Definitive Analysis

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Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.85 - $113.95$81.64
Multi-Stage$54.61 - $59.37$56.94
Blended Fair Value$69.29
Current Price$43.40
Upside59.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.02%7.09%2.800.003.513.592.872.662.371.851.631.75
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-2.26%25.34%7.88%12.16%28.06%13.55%-6.91%24.19%
Dividend Yield--7.15%0.00%10.98%9.13%5.49%12.36%9.16%5.56%5.90%5.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)265.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)259.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.0533.1519.89
Cash Retained (M)5.505.505.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.05-33.15-19.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)-47.55-27.65-14.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.8370.8370.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.67-0.39-0.20
LTM Dividend per Share3.673.673.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.67-0.39-0.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.003.283.46
WACC / Discount Rate10.08%10.08%10.08%
Growth Rate4.83%5.83%6.83%
Fair Value$59.85$81.64$113.95
Upside / Downside37.90%88.12%162.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)265.23280.70297.07314.39332.73352.13362.69
Payout Ratio97.93%96.34%94.76%93.17%91.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)259.73270.42281.49292.92304.73316.92335.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.08%10.08%10.08%
Growth Rate4.83%5.83%6.83%
Year 1 PV (M)243.34245.66247.98
Year 2 PV (M)227.93232.30236.71
Year 3 PV (M)213.43219.60225.88
Year 4 PV (M)199.80207.53215.49
Year 5 PV (M)186.98196.07205.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,795.932,931.853,073.00
Equity Value (M)3,867.404,033.014,204.57
Shares Outstanding (M)70.8370.8370.83
Fair Value$54.61$56.94$59.37
Upside / Downside25.82%31.21%36.79%

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