Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Amalgamated Financial Corp. (AMAL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$103.48 - $464.29$180.98
Multi-Stage$62.76 - $68.65$65.65
Blended Fair Value$123.32
Current Price$27.15
Upside354.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.39%0.00%0.460.400.360.320.320.270.060.010.000.00
YoY Growth--15.41%10.01%12.36%-0.09%20.31%330.33%389.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.61%1.73%2.06%1.80%1.96%2.49%0.41%0.10%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)102.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.4612.797.67
Cash Retained (M)85.6085.6085.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.46-12.79-7.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)65.1472.8177.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.7630.7630.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.122.372.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.122.372.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.662.913.08
WACC / Discount Rate8.21%8.21%8.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$103.48$180.98$464.29
Upside / Downside281.14%566.61%1,610.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)102.30108.95116.03123.57131.60140.16144.36
Payout Ratio16.32%31.06%45.79%60.53%75.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.7033.8453.1374.8099.05126.14133.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.21%8.21%8.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)30.9731.2731.56
Year 2 PV (M)44.5345.3746.23
Year 3 PV (M)57.3859.0360.70
Year 4 PV (M)69.5672.2374.99
Year 5 PV (M)81.0985.0189.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,647.031,726.581,809.18
Equity Value (M)1,930.562,019.502,111.74
Shares Outstanding (M)30.7630.7630.76
Fair Value$62.76$65.65$68.65
Upside / Downside131.15%141.80%152.84%

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