Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Alternative Investment Trust (AIQ.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.53 - $2.27$1.88
Multi-Stage$2.92 - $3.21$3.06
Blended Fair Value$2.47
Current Price$1.83
Upside35.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.060.070.040.040.030.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---5.79%61.76%6.01%35.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.35%5.24%4.11%3.20%2.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.440.900.54
Cash Retained (M)3.533.533.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.44-0.90-0.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.092.632.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)38.1638.1638.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.53$1.88$2.27
Upside / Downside-16.58%2.80%24.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7.197.127.046.976.906.837.04
Payout Ratio50.93%58.74%66.56%74.37%82.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.664.184.695.195.676.156.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3.843.883.92
Year 2 PV (M)3.964.044.13
Year 3 PV (M)4.034.154.28
Year 4 PV (M)4.054.224.39
Year 5 PV (M)4.044.254.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)91.5696.33101.29
Equity Value (M)111.49116.88122.49
Shares Outstanding (M)38.1638.1638.16
Fair Value$2.92$3.06$3.21
Upside / Downside59.63%67.35%75.38%

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