Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Great China Metal Ind. Co., Ltd. (9905.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.18 - $20.20$16.46
Multi-Stage$26.95 - $29.58$28.24
Blended Fair Value$22.35
Current Price$22.90
Upside-2.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.92%-5.80%1.091.191.491.491.001.001.691.491.491.99
YoY Growth---8.33%-20.00%0.00%50.00%0.00%-41.18%13.33%0.00%-25.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.69%4.97%5.90%5.52%3.95%5.03%6.77%5.65%5.72%7.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)446.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)335.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)110.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.2655.7833.47
Cash Retained (M)110.78110.78110.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.26-55.78-33.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.5254.9977.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)306.49306.49306.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.180.25
LTM Dividend per Share1.091.091.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.180.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.35
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate-1.60%-0.60%0.40%
Fair Value$13.18$16.46$20.20
Upside / Downside-42.43%-28.13%-11.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)446.28443.60440.93438.28435.65433.03446.02
Payout Ratio75.18%78.14%81.11%84.07%87.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)335.50346.63357.62368.47379.17389.73412.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate-1.60%-0.60%0.40%
Year 1 PV (M)320.42323.68326.93
Year 2 PV (M)305.57311.82318.12
Year 3 PV (M)291.03299.99309.14
Year 4 PV (M)276.83288.26300.03
Year 5 PV (M)263.02276.66290.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,802.267,155.007,522.23
Equity Value (M)8,259.148,655.419,067.32
Shares Outstanding (M)306.49306.49306.49
Fair Value$26.95$28.24$29.58
Upside / Downside17.67%23.32%29.19%

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