Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Japan Transcity Corporation (9310.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,061.20 - $1,693.15$1,347.99
Multi-Stage$905.82 - $984.96$944.69
Blended Fair Value$1,146.34
Current Price$1,093.00
Upside4.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.33%9.91%23.6612.2411.2510.2210.2010.2010.2010.1910.6910.23
YoY Growth--93.37%8.77%10.12%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.16%-4.76%4.51%11.25%
Dividend Yield--2.17%1.18%1.81%2.08%1.90%2.02%2.12%1.89%2.35%3.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,041.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,449.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,592.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,208.20755.13453.08
Cash Retained (M)3,592.003,592.003,592.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,208.20-755.13-453.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,383.802,836.883,138.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)62.8462.8462.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share37.9445.1549.95
LTM Dividend per Share38.9738.9738.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share37.9445.1549.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend76.9184.1288.93
WACC / Discount Rate13.15%13.15%13.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,061.20$1,347.99$1,693.15
Upside / Downside-2.91%23.33%54.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,041.006,433.676,851.857,297.227,771.548,276.698,524.99
Payout Ratio40.54%50.43%60.32%70.22%80.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,449.003,244.614,133.305,123.816,225.627,449.027,885.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate13.15%13.15%13.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,840.702,867.622,894.55
Year 2 PV (M)3,168.273,228.623,289.53
Year 3 PV (M)3,438.593,537.303,637.89
Year 4 PV (M)3,657.923,798.593,943.28
Year 5 PV (M)3,831.894,016.974,209.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,980.1341,911.1843,916.14
Equity Value (M)56,917.4959,360.2961,890.53
Shares Outstanding (M)62.8462.8462.84
Fair Value$905.82$944.69$984.96
Upside / Downside-17.13%-13.57%-9.88%

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