Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Mars Group Holdings Corporation (6419.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22,319.11 - $77,975.36$73,074.33
Multi-Stage$10,132.19 - $11,079.40$10,597.14
Blended Fair Value$41,835.74
Current Price$3,070.00
Upside1,262.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS23.25%12.18%207.1588.1163.4763.7463.3372.8372.3862.9559.1356.38
YoY Growth--135.09%38.82%-0.42%0.64%-13.05%0.63%14.98%6.47%4.87%-14.11%
Dividend Yield--7.17%2.28%2.23%3.85%3.89%4.47%3.58%2.41%2.39%2.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,231.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,592.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,639.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,446.34903.96542.38
Cash Retained (M)3,639.303,639.303,639.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,446.34-903.96-542.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,192.972,735.343,096.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.4418.4418.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share118.90148.30167.91
LTM Dividend per Share194.77194.77194.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share118.90148.30167.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend313.67343.07362.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.98%6.98%6.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22,319.11$73,074.33$77,975.36
Upside / Downside627.01%2,280.27%2,439.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,231.687,701.748,202.358,735.519,303.319,908.0310,205.27
Payout Ratio49.68%57.74%65.81%73.87%81.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,592.384,447.025,397.596,452.947,622.688,917.239,439.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.98%6.98%6.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,117.744,156.774,195.80
Year 2 PV (M)4,627.844,715.994,804.97
Year 3 PV (M)5,123.025,270.085,419.93
Year 4 PV (M)5,603.585,819.086,040.73
Year 5 PV (M)6,069.846,363.016,667.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)161,339.17169,131.91177,222.90
Equity Value (M)186,881.18195,456.84204,351.74
Shares Outstanding (M)18.4418.4418.44
Fair Value$10,132.19$10,597.14$11,079.40
Upside / Downside230.04%245.18%260.89%

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