Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co., Ltd. (603198.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$111.58 - $521.51$248.46
Multi-Stage$60.29 - $65.87$63.03
Blended Fair Value$155.74
Current Price$41.15
Upside278.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.18%21.27%1.301.100.910.700.700.700.700.600.500.40
YoY Growth--18.11%21.56%28.68%0.51%0.00%0.00%16.67%20.00%25.00%111.64%
Dividend Yield--2.41%1.61%1.36%1.30%1.99%4.34%3.75%3.95%2.35%1.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,094.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,203.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)890.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)418.86261.79157.07
Cash Retained (M)890.97890.97890.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-418.86-261.79-157.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)472.12629.19733.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)798.64798.64798.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.790.92
LTM Dividend per Share1.511.511.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.790.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.102.292.43
WACC / Discount Rate7.48%7.48%7.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$111.58$248.46$521.51
Upside / Downside171.16%503.79%1,167.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,094.282,230.412,375.392,529.792,694.222,869.352,955.43
Payout Ratio57.46%63.97%70.47%76.98%83.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,203.311,426.691,674.031,947.502,249.442,582.412,733.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.48%7.48%7.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,314.891,327.361,339.82
Year 2 PV (M)1,421.951,449.041,476.38
Year 3 PV (M)1,524.611,568.381,612.98
Year 4 PV (M)1,623.001,685.421,749.62
Year 5 PV (M)1,717.241,800.181,886.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,545.9542,504.3344,537.67
Equity Value (M)48,147.6550,334.7052,602.76
Shares Outstanding (M)798.64798.64798.64
Fair Value$60.29$63.03$65.87
Upside / Downside46.51%53.16%60.06%

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