Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Zijin Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd (601860.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.14 - $12.41$8.56
Multi-Stage$10.04 - $11.04$10.53
Blended Fair Value$9.55
Current Price$2.80
Upside241.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-25.10%26.28%0.110.110.150.240.340.470.500.090.050.06
YoY Growth--6.02%-30.88%-36.79%-29.64%-27.69%-5.39%461.40%65.45%-7.80%440.00%
Dividend Yield--4.04%4.06%5.89%7.81%8.93%11.24%5.40%1.98%1.19%1.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,476.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)369.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,106.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)295.25184.53110.72
Cash Retained (M)1,106.421,106.421,106.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-295.25-184.53-110.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)811.16921.88995.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,058.654,058.654,058.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.04%6.04%6.04%
Growth Rate1.24%2.24%3.24%
Fair Value$6.14$8.56$12.41
Upside / Downside119.20%205.83%343.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,476.271,509.321,543.111,577.651,612.971,649.071,698.54
Payout Ratio25.05%38.04%51.03%64.02%77.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)369.86574.19787.481,010.031,242.161,484.171,571.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.04%6.04%6.04%
Growth Rate1.24%2.24%3.24%
Year 1 PV (M)536.19541.49546.79
Year 2 PV (M)686.71700.35714.11
Year 3 PV (M)822.51847.12872.22
Year 4 PV (M)944.60982.481,021.49
Year 5 PV (M)1,053.961,107.051,162.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,721.6338,571.4340,495.04
Equity Value (M)40,765.6142,749.9244,811.91
Shares Outstanding (M)4,058.654,058.654,058.65
Fair Value$10.04$10.53$11.04
Upside / Downside258.72%276.18%294.32%

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