Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu chunlan refrigerating equipment stock co.,ltd. (600854.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.31 - $9.14$6.12
Multi-Stage$3.30 - $3.59$3.44
Blended Fair Value$4.78
Current Price$5.18
Upside-7.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.47%26.85%0.140.110.090.040.040.060.020.010.020.02
YoY Growth--21.74%21.05%150.00%-5.00%-33.33%200.00%66.23%-44.66%41.78%18.12%
Dividend Yield--3.02%2.58%2.03%0.76%1.16%1.57%0.43%0.25%0.27%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)119.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)63.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.8814.928.95
Cash Retained (M)55.4455.4455.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.88-14.92-8.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.5640.5146.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)519.73519.73519.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.31$6.12$9.14
Upside / Downside-16.82%18.08%76.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)119.38127.14135.40144.20153.58163.56168.47
Payout Ratio53.56%60.85%68.14%75.42%82.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)63.9477.3692.26108.77127.03147.20155.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)69.6770.3370.99
Year 2 PV (M)74.8276.2577.69
Year 3 PV (M)79.4481.7284.04
Year 4 PV (M)83.5586.7690.07
Year 5 PV (M)87.1991.4095.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,318.731,382.431,448.56
Equity Value (M)1,713.411,788.891,867.13
Shares Outstanding (M)519.73519.73519.73
Fair Value$3.30$3.44$3.59
Upside / Downside-36.36%-33.55%-30.65%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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