Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Xinjiang Qingsong Building Materials and Chemicals (Group) Co, Ltd. (600425.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.04 - $3.45$2.65
Multi-Stage$2.48 - $2.71$2.59
Blended Fair Value$2.62
Current Price$4.43
Upside-40.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.66%-3.48%0.130.140.190.060.080.120.150.160.180.22
YoY Growth---7.13%-26.78%228.40%-21.85%-34.67%-20.90%-6.05%-12.28%-17.60%14.62%
Dividend Yield--3.34%3.77%4.89%1.35%1.76%3.22%2.93%4.32%2.56%4.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)261.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)199.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.2332.6519.59
Cash Retained (M)61.8561.8561.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.23-32.65-19.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.6229.2142.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.181,600.181,600.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate8.97%8.97%8.97%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Fair Value$2.04$2.65$3.45
Upside / Downside-54.04%-40.13%-22.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)261.17270.06279.26288.77298.60308.77318.03
Payout Ratio76.32%79.05%81.79%84.53%87.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)199.31213.49228.40244.08260.57277.89294.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.97%8.97%8.97%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Year 1 PV (M)194.02195.91197.81
Year 2 PV (M)188.64192.34196.08
Year 3 PV (M)183.20188.62194.14
Year 4 PV (M)177.73184.78192.03
Year 5 PV (M)172.26180.84189.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,053.103,205.113,363.12
Equity Value (M)3,968.954,147.604,332.93
Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.181,600.181,600.18
Fair Value$2.48$2.59$2.71
Upside / Downside-44.01%-41.49%-38.88%

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