Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co., Ltd. (600000.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.50 - $33.98$25.69
Multi-Stage$25.56 - $28.00$26.76
Blended Fair Value$26.22
Current Price$11.90
Upside120.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.30%16.65%1.741.261.711.741.601.281.030.180.360.46
YoY Growth--37.65%-26.06%-1.71%8.45%25.11%24.58%461.41%-48.94%-21.14%22.01%
Dividend Yield--16.68%17.48%23.77%21.73%14.59%12.63%8.99%1.57%2.91%3.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)48,853.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23,091.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)25,762.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,770.606,106.633,663.98
Cash Retained (M)25,762.0025,762.0025,762.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,770.60-6,106.63-3,663.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)15,991.4019,655.3822,098.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33,009.1333,009.1333,009.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.600.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.600.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.181.291.37
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate1.80%2.80%3.80%
Fair Value$19.50$25.69$33.98
Upside / Downside63.83%115.87%185.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)48,853.0050,219.2651,623.7353,067.4754,551.6056,077.2257,759.54
Payout Ratio47.27%55.81%64.36%72.91%81.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23,091.0028,028.8933,224.9138,689.6444,434.0550,469.5053,427.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate1.80%2.80%3.80%
Year 1 PV (M)25,705.2725,957.7926,210.30
Year 2 PV (M)27,944.5028,496.2329,053.34
Year 3 PV (M)29,843.0730,731.2331,636.84
Year 4 PV (M)31,432.6532,686.0833,976.64
Year 5 PV (M)32,742.3934,382.5236,087.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)696,189.40731,062.96767,320.24
Equity Value (M)843,857.29883,316.81924,285.09
Shares Outstanding (M)33,009.1333,009.1333,009.13
Fair Value$25.56$26.76$28.00
Upside / Downside114.83%124.87%135.30%

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