Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Bin Dawood Holding Company (4161.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.15 - $3.32$2.69
Multi-Stage$5.06 - $5.56$5.30
Blended Fair Value$4.00
Current Price$5.65
Upside-29.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.41%0.00%0.200.200.160.130.280.220.180.250.220.00
YoY Growth---0.15%29.03%24.00%-55.16%30.04%16.67%-26.80%13.18%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.21%2.28%2.36%1.31%2.57%2.04%1.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)262.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)228.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.5232.8219.69
Cash Retained (M)34.5334.5334.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.52-32.82-19.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)-17.991.7014.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,137.341,137.341,137.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.15$2.69$3.32
Upside / Downside-61.97%-52.32%-41.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)262.59259.96257.36254.79252.24249.72257.21
Payout Ratio86.85%87.48%88.11%88.74%89.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)228.06227.42226.76226.10225.43224.75237.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)211.53213.69215.85
Year 2 PV (M)196.19200.21204.28
Year 3 PV (M)181.95187.58193.32
Year 4 PV (M)168.74175.73182.94
Year 5 PV (M)156.48164.62173.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,837.805,089.715,352.02
Equity Value (M)5,752.696,031.556,321.51
Shares Outstanding (M)1,137.341,137.341,137.34
Fair Value$5.06$5.30$5.56
Upside / Downside-10.48%-6.14%-1.63%

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