Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Cayi Vacuum Container Co., Ltd. (301004.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$221.50 - $969.69$529.65
Multi-Stage$115.21 - $125.91$120.46
Blended Fair Value$325.06
Current Price$61.76
Upside426.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS374.79%0.00%1.800.900.260.170.000.000.010.020.000.00
YoY Growth--99.37%251.42%50.14%0.00%-100.00%-90.07%-52.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.41%1.82%1.16%1.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)569.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)312.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)256.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)113.8971.1842.71
Cash Retained (M)256.75256.75256.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-113.89-71.18-42.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)142.86185.57214.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)116.79116.79116.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.221.591.83
LTM Dividend per Share2.682.682.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.221.591.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.904.274.51
WACC / Discount Rate7.36%7.36%7.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$221.50$529.65$969.69
Upside / Downside258.65%757.60%1,470.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)569.47606.48645.90687.89732.60780.22803.62
Payout Ratio54.91%61.93%68.95%75.97%82.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)312.72375.60445.34522.56607.93702.20743.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.36%7.36%7.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)346.57349.86353.14
Year 2 PV (M)379.17386.39393.68
Year 3 PV (M)410.53422.31434.32
Year 4 PV (M)440.69457.63475.07
Year 5 PV (M)469.68492.37515.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,409.4911,960.5812,532.75
Equity Value (M)13,456.1314,069.1314,704.88
Shares Outstanding (M)116.79116.79116.79
Fair Value$115.21$120.46$125.91
Upside / Downside86.55%95.05%103.86%

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