Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Xinxiang Richful Lube Additive Co., Ltd (300910.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.03 - $142.19$87.54
Multi-Stage$42.66 - $46.54$44.57
Blended Fair Value$66.05
Current Price$53.00
Upside24.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS228.75%0.00%1.311.190.410.410.090.000.000.010.060.00
YoY Growth--9.83%187.97%0.22%384.85%2,398.66%-0.99%-75.88%-76.05%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.29%3.02%0.71%1.55%0.22%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)796.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)358.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)438.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)159.3599.5959.76
Cash Retained (M)438.17438.17438.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-159.35-99.59-59.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)278.82338.58378.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)290.98290.98290.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.961.161.30
LTM Dividend per Share1.231.231.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.961.161.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.192.402.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$59.03$87.54$142.19
Upside / Downside11.38%65.17%168.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)796.75848.54903.69962.431,024.991,091.611,124.36
Payout Ratio45.00%54.00%63.00%72.00%81.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)358.58458.24569.35692.97830.25982.451,040.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)414.88418.81422.74
Year 2 PV (M)466.70475.58484.56
Year 3 PV (M)514.27529.03544.08
Year 4 PV (M)557.85579.30601.37
Year 5 PV (M)597.64626.51656.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,862.5010,338.8710,833.46
Equity Value (M)12,413.8412,968.1113,542.69
Shares Outstanding (M)290.98290.98290.98
Fair Value$42.66$44.57$46.54
Upside / Downside-19.50%-15.91%-12.18%

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