Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Uju Holding Limited (1948.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.53 - $3.66$3.08
Multi-Stage$4.13 - $4.54$4.33
Blended Fair Value$3.71
Current Price$2.65
Upside39.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.050.020.080.160.010.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--145.72%-77.95%-46.14%1,207.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.34%1.07%2.76%2.89%0.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)208.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)159.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.7726.1015.66
Cash Retained (M)159.42159.42159.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.77-26.10-15.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)117.65133.31143.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)590.92590.92590.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate8.93%8.93%8.93%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.53$3.08$3.66
Upside / Downside-4.37%16.30%38.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)208.83206.74204.67202.63200.60198.59204.55
Payout Ratio23.66%36.93%50.20%63.46%76.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.4176.35102.74128.60153.93178.73189.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.93%8.93%8.93%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)69.3870.0970.79
Year 2 PV (M)84.8486.5888.34
Year 3 PV (M)96.5099.48102.53
Year 4 PV (M)104.96109.31113.80
Year 5 PV (M)110.76116.53122.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,976.352,079.262,186.42
Equity Value (M)2,442.792,561.252,684.41
Shares Outstanding (M)590.92590.92590.92
Fair Value$4.13$4.33$4.54
Upside / Downside56.00%63.56%71.43%

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