Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Natural Food International Holding Limited (1837.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.94 - $1.33$1.13
Multi-Stage$1.41 - $1.54$1.47
Blended Fair Value$1.30
Current Price$0.72
Upside80.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.58%0.00%0.030.000.000.020.000.040.110.020.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-65.43%363.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.78%0.00%0.00%4.00%0.00%3.00%9.63%2.06%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)310.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)239.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.0938.8123.28
Cash Retained (M)239.93239.93239.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.09-38.81-23.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)177.84201.12216.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,172.692,172.692,172.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.130.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.94$1.13$1.33
Upside / Downside29.87%56.57%83.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)310.45307.34304.27301.23298.21295.23304.09
Payout Ratio22.72%36.17%49.63%63.09%76.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.52111.17151.01190.03228.26265.71281.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)100.07101.10102.12
Year 2 PV (M)122.36124.87127.40
Year 3 PV (M)138.61142.89147.27
Year 4 PV (M)149.87156.08162.48
Year 5 PV (M)157.03165.21173.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,385.192,509.402,638.72
Equity Value (M)3,053.143,199.543,351.71
Shares Outstanding (M)2,172.692,172.692,172.69
Fair Value$1.41$1.47$1.54
Upside / Downside95.00%104.35%114.07%

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