Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

ConocoPhillips (0QZA.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas EnergySector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$483.78 - $1,413.64$1,324.77
Multi-Stage$203.06 - $222.22$212.47
Blended Fair Value$768.62
Current Price$94.59
Upside712.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.44%0.34%2.944.504.621.901.481.211.101.051.012.95
YoY Growth---34.69%-2.50%142.73%28.84%22.07%10.05%4.44%4.15%-65.80%3.94%
Dividend Yield--2.80%3.50%4.65%1.90%2.79%3.93%1.62%1.77%2.03%7.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,830.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,854.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,976.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,766.001,103.75662.25
Cash Retained (M)4,976.004,976.004,976.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,766.00-1,103.75-662.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,210.003,872.254,313.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,240.401,240.401,240.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.593.123.48
LTM Dividend per Share3.113.113.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.593.123.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.696.236.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.58%6.58%6.58%
Growth Rate5.34%6.34%7.34%
Fair Value$483.78$1,324.77$1,413.64
Upside / Downside411.45%1,300.54%1,394.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,830.009,390.009,985.5210,618.8011,292.2512,008.4112,368.66
Payout Ratio43.65%52.92%62.19%71.46%80.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,854.004,968.946,209.797,588.069,116.1610,807.5711,441.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.58%6.58%6.58%
Growth Rate5.34%6.34%7.34%
Year 1 PV (M)4,618.244,662.084,705.92
Year 2 PV (M)5,364.175,466.495,569.79
Year 3 PV (M)6,092.126,267.266,445.74
Year 4 PV (M)6,802.407,064.407,333.89
Year 5 PV (M)7,495.337,857.918,234.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)221,509.16232,224.48243,350.53
Equity Value (M)251,881.40263,542.62275,640.25
Shares Outstanding (M)1,240.401,240.401,240.40
Fair Value$203.06$212.47$222.22
Upside / Downside114.68%124.62%134.93%

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