Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

CSX Corporation (0HRJ.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: General TransportationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.08 - $94.69$53.93
Multi-Stage$52.87 - $58.10$55.43
Blended Fair Value$54.68
Current Price$35.51
Upside53.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.04%3.99%0.490.470.450.440.420.400.400.380.360.36
YoY Growth--5.44%3.52%1.55%5.27%4.46%1.60%6.07%4.12%-0.87%9.06%
Dividend Yield--1.67%1.27%1.51%1.19%1.31%2.12%1.56%2.02%2.32%4.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,881.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)960.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,921.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)576.20360.13216.08
Cash Retained (M)1,921.001,921.001,921.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-576.20-360.13-216.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,344.801,560.881,704.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,887.251,887.251,887.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.710.830.90
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.710.830.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.341.41
WACC / Discount Rate5.54%5.54%5.54%
Growth Rate1.99%2.99%3.99%
Fair Value$35.08$53.93$94.69
Upside / Downside-1.21%51.88%166.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,881.002,967.083,055.743,147.053,241.083,337.923,438.06
Payout Ratio33.32%44.66%55.99%67.33%78.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)960.001,325.021,711.002,118.872,549.573,004.133,180.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.54%5.54%5.54%
Growth Rate1.99%2.99%3.99%
Year 1 PV (M)1,243.301,255.491,267.68
Year 2 PV (M)1,506.441,536.131,566.10
Year 3 PV (M)1,750.481,802.471,855.49
Year 4 PV (M)1,976.382,055.052,136.03
Year 5 PV (M)2,185.112,294.362,407.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)91,118.2795,673.84100,409.83
Equity Value (M)99,779.98104,617.33109,643.06
Shares Outstanding (M)1,887.251,887.251,887.25
Fair Value$52.87$55.43$58.10
Upside / Downside48.89%56.11%63.61%

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