Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.79 - $110.95$58.42
Multi-Stage$24.81 - $27.09$25.93
Blended Fair Value$42.17
Current Price$39.22
Upside7.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.34%-4.03%0.600.600.600.230.050.200.150.000.000.42
YoY Growth--0.23%-0.35%161.63%353.42%-74.91%33.49%10,800.00%-66.67%-99.01%-53.64%
Dividend Yield--1.58%1.26%1.47%0.46%0.15%2.99%1.15%0.01%0.03%4.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,066.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)865.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,201.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)413.20258.25154.95
Cash Retained (M)1,201.001,201.001,201.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-413.20-258.25-154.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)787.80942.751,046.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,444.001,444.001,444.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.650.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.650.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.141.251.32
WACC / Discount Rate8.78%8.78%8.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.79$58.42$110.95
Upside / Downside-6.20%48.95%182.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,066.002,200.292,343.312,495.622,657.842,830.602,915.52
Payout Ratio41.87%51.49%61.12%70.75%80.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)865.001,133.031,432.251,765.592,136.202,547.542,696.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.78%8.78%8.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,031.781,041.561,051.34
Year 2 PV (M)1,187.711,210.331,233.16
Year 3 PV (M)1,333.281,371.561,410.56
Year 4 PV (M)1,468.991,525.491,583.60
Year 5 PV (M)1,595.301,672.361,752.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,206.2230,616.8932,081.55
Equity Value (M)35,823.2937,438.1839,112.57
Shares Outstanding (M)1,444.001,444.001,444.00
Fair Value$24.81$25.93$27.09
Upside / Downside-36.75%-33.89%-30.94%

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