Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$98.18 - $217.79$141.60
Multi-Stage$101.33 - $110.86$106.00
Blended Fair Value$123.80
Current Price$152.00
Upside-18.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.03%1.18%2.662.402.302.092.001.811.631.472.632.58
YoY Growth--10.91%4.47%9.63%4.59%10.76%10.61%11.06%-44.09%1.92%9.12%
Dividend Yield--1.69%1.71%1.74%1.77%1.85%2.64%1.62%1.73%4.12%4.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,432.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)779.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)653.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)286.40179.00107.40
Cash Retained (M)653.00653.00653.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-286.40-179.00-107.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)366.60474.00545.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)282.75282.75282.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.301.681.93
LTM Dividend per Share2.762.762.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.301.681.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.054.434.68
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate3.40%4.40%5.40%
Fair Value$98.18$141.60$217.79
Upside / Downside-35.41%-6.84%43.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,432.001,495.031,560.831,629.531,701.251,776.131,829.41
Payout Ratio54.40%61.52%68.64%75.76%82.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)779.00919.731,071.351,234.531,409.991,598.511,692.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate3.40%4.40%5.40%
Year 1 PV (M)846.05854.23862.41
Year 2 PV (M)906.55924.17941.96
Year 3 PV (M)960.93989.081,017.78
Year 4 PV (M)1,009.581,049.211,089.99
Year 5 PV (M)1,052.861,104.771,158.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,873.9325,050.9026,273.85
Equity Value (M)28,649.9029,972.3631,344.69
Shares Outstanding (M)282.75282.75282.75
Fair Value$101.33$106.00$110.86
Upside / Downside-33.34%-30.26%-27.07%

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