Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sonic Interfreight Public Company Limited (SONIC.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.54 - $2.30$1.90
Multi-Stage$1.34 - $1.45$1.39
Blended Fair Value$1.65
Current Price$1.48
Upside11.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%17.13%0.050.100.100.040.030.000.050.270.010.02
YoY Growth---49.73%5.89%160.83%10.00%0.00%-100.00%-82.03%1,732.61%-14.13%58.64%
Dividend Yield--3.38%6.56%4.20%0.97%1.12%0.00%3.72%13.89%0.76%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)93.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.7817.3610.42
Cash Retained (M)93.0593.0593.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.78-17.36-10.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)65.2875.6982.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)796.13796.13796.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate15.04%15.04%15.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1.54$1.90$2.30
Upside / Downside4.29%28.64%55.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.88147.91157.52167.76178.66190.28195.99
Payout Ratio33.00%44.40%55.80%67.20%78.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.8365.6787.89112.73140.43171.25181.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.04%15.04%15.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)56.5557.0857.62
Year 2 PV (M)65.1766.4267.67
Year 3 PV (M)71.9874.0576.15
Year 4 PV (M)77.2180.1883.24
Year 5 PV (M)81.0885.0089.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)713.01747.45783.21
Equity Value (M)1,065.011,110.181,156.95
Shares Outstanding (M)796.13796.13796.13
Fair Value$1.34$1.39$1.45
Upside / Downside-9.61%-5.78%-1.81%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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