Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Lam Soon (Thailand) Public Company Limited (LST.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.10 - $13.70$10.55
Multi-Stage$11.38 - $12.48$11.92
Blended Fair Value$11.23
Current Price$4.66
Upside141.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.94%0.77%0.290.250.310.250.400.260.190.120.160.22
YoY Growth--17.37%-21.29%27.13%-39.49%54.87%35.07%63.61%-27.84%-25.04%-17.93%
Dividend Yield--6.07%4.96%6.33%3.95%8.10%6.00%4.28%2.19%2.85%5.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)539.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)196.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)342.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)107.8467.4040.44
Cash Retained (M)342.33342.33342.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-107.84-67.40-40.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)234.49274.93301.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)816.24816.24816.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate1.21%2.21%3.21%
Fair Value$8.10$10.55$13.70
Upside / Downside73.86%126.31%194.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)539.21551.12563.30575.74588.46601.46619.50
Payout Ratio36.51%47.21%57.91%68.60%79.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)196.88260.18326.19394.98466.66541.31573.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate1.21%2.21%3.21%
Year 1 PV (M)238.97241.33243.69
Year 2 PV (M)275.17280.64286.15
Year 3 PV (M)306.04315.20324.55
Year 4 PV (M)332.10345.42359.14
Year 5 PV (M)353.82371.65390.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,785.578,177.888,585.84
Equity Value (M)9,291.689,732.1210,189.56
Shares Outstanding (M)816.24816.24816.24
Fair Value$11.38$11.92$12.48
Upside / Downside144.28%155.86%167.89%

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