Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Lakeland Bancorp, Inc. (LBAI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.10 - $160.71$67.11
Multi-Stage$24.76 - $27.04$25.88
Blended Fair Value$46.49
Current Price$12.02
Upside286.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS12.31%16.66%0.580.570.420.390.380.330.290.250.190.17
YoY Growth--1.97%37.67%6.53%2.16%16.95%13.02%17.78%27.18%16.15%32.92%
Dividend Yield--4.86%3.66%2.49%2.24%3.53%2.10%1.46%1.25%1.90%1.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.9510.596.35
Cash Retained (M)46.6446.6446.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.95-10.59-6.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.6936.0540.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)65.2365.2365.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.550.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.580.580.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.550.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.141.20
WACC / Discount Rate8.30%8.30%8.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.10$67.11$160.71
Upside / Downside225.29%458.29%1,237.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.7390.2496.10102.35109.00116.09119.57
Payout Ratio44.96%53.96%62.97%71.98%80.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.0948.7060.5273.6788.28104.48110.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.30%8.30%8.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)44.5444.9645.38
Year 2 PV (M)50.6351.6052.57
Year 3 PV (M)56.3857.9959.64
Year 4 PV (M)61.7964.1766.61
Year 5 PV (M)66.8870.1273.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,335.021,399.501,466.45
Equity Value (M)1,615.241,688.341,764.13
Shares Outstanding (M)65.2365.2365.23
Fair Value$24.76$25.88$27.04
Upside / Downside105.99%115.31%124.98%

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