Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Falcon Minerals Corporation (FLMN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.45 - $5.09$4.23
Multi-Stage$6.63 - $7.27$6.94
Blended Fair Value$5.59
Current Price$6.74
Upside-17.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.230.593.023.120.460.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-61.26%-80.49%-3.19%580.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%5.08%27.38%33.60%27.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.502.811.69
Cash Retained (M)4.094.094.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.50-2.81-1.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.411.282.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)51.4651.4651.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate7.94%7.94%7.94%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.45$4.23$5.09
Upside / Downside-48.85%-37.17%-24.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22.4922.2622.0421.8221.6021.3922.03
Payout Ratio81.83%83.46%85.10%86.73%88.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.4018.5818.7618.9319.0919.2520.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.94%7.94%7.94%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)17.0417.2217.39
Year 2 PV (M)15.7816.1016.43
Year 3 PV (M)14.6015.0515.51
Year 4 PV (M)13.5014.0614.64
Year 5 PV (M)12.4913.1413.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)267.64281.58296.09
Equity Value (M)341.04357.14373.86
Shares Outstanding (M)51.4651.4651.46
Fair Value$6.63$6.94$7.27
Upside / Downside-1.67%2.97%7.79%

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