Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Compañía Cervecerías Unidas S.A. (CCU.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,246.85 - $16,196.74$10,479.33
Multi-Stage$6,834.83 - $7,466.18$7,144.73
Blended Fair Value$8,812.03
Current Price$6,050.50
Upside45.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.81%2.28%221.37177.49428.47741.91276.41590.08202.50203.32188.96179.02
YoY Growth--24.72%-58.58%-42.25%168.40%-53.16%191.39%-0.40%7.60%5.55%1.27%
Dividend Yield--3.07%3.04%7.00%12.60%4.38%10.05%2.08%2.31%2.27%2.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)136,209.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88,216.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)47,993.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27,241.8417,026.1510,215.69
Cash Retained (M)47,993.2047,993.2047,993.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-27,241.84-17,026.15-10,215.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)20,751.3630,967.0537,777.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)369.50369.50369.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share56.1683.81102.24
LTM Dividend per Share238.74238.74238.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share56.1683.81102.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend294.90322.55340.98
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate3.97%4.97%5.97%
Fair Value$7,246.85$10,479.33$16,196.74
Upside / Downside19.77%73.20%167.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)136,209.20142,977.80150,082.75157,540.77165,369.40173,587.05178,794.66
Payout Ratio64.77%69.81%74.86%79.91%84.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88,216.0099,815.75112,350.52125,884.58140,486.29156,228.34165,385.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate3.97%4.97%5.97%
Year 1 PV (M)91,372.1692,251.0093,129.84
Year 2 PV (M)94,146.6295,966.3897,803.55
Year 3 PV (M)96,564.3999,377.61102,244.95
Year 4 PV (M)98,649.13102,499.55106,461.61
Year 5 PV (M)100,423.18105,346.44110,460.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,044,333.912,144,557.742,248,674.38
Equity Value (M)2,525,489.392,639,998.732,758,775.26
Shares Outstanding (M)369.50369.50369.50
Fair Value$6,834.83$7,144.73$7,466.18
Upside / Downside12.96%18.08%23.40%

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