Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Popular Capital Trust II PFD GTD 6.125% (BPOPM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BanksSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,637.48 - $1,929.22$1,807.97
Multi-Stage$332.42 - $364.14$347.99
Blended Fair Value$1,077.98
Current Price$25.84
Upside4,071.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.28%47.42%2.542.252.281.991.881.631.491.350.930.27
YoY Growth--12.89%-1.03%14.17%5.85%15.40%9.83%9.94%45.47%242.38%417.24%
Dividend Yield--9.84%8.88%8.77%7.80%7.30%6.94%5.85%6.00%4.11%1.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)688.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)185.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)503.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)137.6986.0551.63
Cash Retained (M)503.05503.05503.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-137.69-86.05-51.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)365.36416.99451.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.9770.9770.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.155.886.36
LTM Dividend per Share2.612.612.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.155.886.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.768.498.97
WACC / Discount Rate5.99%5.99%5.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,637.48$1,807.97$1,929.22
Upside / Downside6,236.98%6,896.77%7,366.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)688.43733.18780.84831.59885.64943.21971.51
Payout Ratio26.93%39.54%52.16%64.77%77.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)185.38289.92407.26538.63685.36848.89898.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.99%5.99%5.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)270.95273.52276.09
Year 2 PV (M)355.72362.50369.34
Year 3 PV (M)439.69452.32465.18
Year 4 PV (M)522.87542.98563.66
Year 5 PV (M)605.27634.50664.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,396.7022,430.1723,503.19
Equity Value (M)23,591.2124,695.9925,842.31
Shares Outstanding (M)70.9770.9770.97
Fair Value$332.42$347.99$364.14
Upside / Downside1,186.47%1,246.72%1,309.23%

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