Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Blau FarmacĂȘutica S.A. (BLAU3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.14 - $77.73$50.63
Multi-Stage$25.34 - $27.68$26.49
Blended Fair Value$38.56
Current Price$13.90
Upside177.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.78%42.49%0.320.370.760.591.850.660.190.240.070.01
YoY Growth---15.20%-51.18%30.14%-68.34%179.30%252.80%-23.12%241.55%404.04%55.10%
Dividend Yield--2.48%3.27%3.37%2.24%5.02%1.80%0.51%0.66%0.19%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)316.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)62.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)253.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.3139.5723.74
Cash Retained (M)253.82253.82253.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.31-39.57-23.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)190.51214.25230.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)177.68177.68177.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.071.211.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.071.211.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.431.561.65
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.14$50.63$77.73
Upside / Downside152.79%264.23%459.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)316.54337.12359.03382.36407.22433.69446.70
Payout Ratio19.81%33.85%47.89%61.93%75.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)62.72114.12171.93236.78309.33390.32413.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)102.98103.95104.93
Year 2 PV (M)140.00142.67145.36
Year 3 PV (M)173.98178.97184.06
Year 4 PV (M)205.10212.99221.10
Year 5 PV (M)233.53244.81256.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,646.683,822.824,005.69
Equity Value (M)4,502.264,706.204,917.66
Shares Outstanding (M)177.68177.68177.68
Fair Value$25.34$26.49$27.68
Upside / Downside82.29%90.55%99.11%

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