Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Banco BPM S.p.A. (BAMI.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$209.25 - $246.54$231.04
Multi-Stage$54.00 - $59.10$56.50
Blended Fair Value$143.77
Current Price$9.91
Upside1,350.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS642.95%64.50%0.960.230.190.060.000.000.000.000.040.00
YoY Growth--314.47%21.22%218.45%0.00%-100.00%-66.67%-55.04%-99.29%23,403.13%-97.44%
Dividend Yield--10.31%3.73%5.31%2.24%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%1.44%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,863.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,507.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)355.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)372.67232.92139.75
Cash Retained (M)355.43355.43355.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-372.67-232.92-139.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)-17.24122.51215.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,503.101,503.101,503.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.080.14
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.080.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.991.081.15
WACC / Discount Rate5.44%5.44%5.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$209.25$231.04$246.54
Upside / Downside2,011.54%2,231.39%2,387.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,863.331,984.442,113.432,250.812,397.112,552.922,629.51
Payout Ratio80.93%82.74%84.56%86.37%88.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,507.901,641.931,787.021,944.022,113.892,297.632,432.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.44%5.44%5.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,542.661,557.281,571.90
Year 2 PV (M)1,577.451,607.501,637.83
Year 3 PV (M)1,612.291,658.581,705.74
Year 4 PV (M)1,647.171,710.521,775.67
Year 5 PV (M)1,682.091,763.341,847.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)73,100.0376,630.7980,296.68
Equity Value (M)81,161.7084,928.0088,835.51
Shares Outstanding (M)1,503.101,503.101,503.10
Fair Value$54.00$56.50$59.10
Upside / Downside444.86%470.15%496.38%

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