Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

AXA S.A. (AXA.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$88.29 - $161.82$118.68
Multi-Stage$80.98 - $88.31$84.57
Blended Fair Value$101.63
Current Price$41.67
Upside143.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.39%7.14%2.031.801.671.590.791.491.551.411.331.20
YoY Growth--12.84%7.40%5.36%100.17%-46.66%-4.28%10.20%5.99%10.85%17.99%
Dividend Yield--5.91%6.10%6.42%6.07%4.07%5.93%8.24%5.70%5.55%4.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,004.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,858.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,146.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,600.801,625.50975.30
Cash Retained (M)6,146.006,146.006,146.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,600.80-1,625.50-975.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,545.204,520.505,170.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,195.992,195.992,195.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.612.062.35
LTM Dividend per Share3.123.123.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.612.062.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.745.185.48
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Fair Value$88.29$118.68$161.82
Upside / Downside111.88%184.81%288.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,004.0013,705.3114,444.4415,223.4316,044.4316,909.7117,417.00
Payout Ratio52.74%60.19%67.64%75.10%82.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,858.008,249.249,770.5911,432.0413,244.2815,218.7416,110.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Year 1 PV (M)7,428.547,499.707,570.85
Year 2 PV (M)7,923.188,075.708,229.68
Year 3 PV (M)8,348.188,590.398,837.25
Year 4 PV (M)8,709.359,047.899,396.21
Year 5 PV (M)9,012.099,452.089,909.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)136,400.86143,060.27149,977.28
Equity Value (M)177,822.20185,726.04193,920.36
Shares Outstanding (M)2,195.992,195.992,195.99
Fair Value$80.98$84.57$88.31
Upside / Downside94.33%102.96%111.92%

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