Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Xin Point Holdings Limited (1571.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$83.34 - $203.78$190.97
Multi-Stage$29.77 - $32.58$31.15
Blended Fair Value$111.06
Current Price$3.49
Upside3,082.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.98%26.08%0.410.210.070.150.130.130.130.170.180.00
YoY Growth--94.63%206.38%-54.42%21.19%-3.67%-2.19%-22.28%-2.37%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--10.19%8.39%3.50%7.20%3.10%6.70%5.74%4.13%6.10%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,028.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)421.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)606.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)205.61128.5077.10
Cash Retained (M)606.05606.05606.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-205.61-128.50-77.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)400.45477.55528.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,003.311,003.311,003.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.480.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.480.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.900.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$83.34$190.97$203.78
Upside / Downside2,288.04%5,371.84%5,738.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,028.031,094.851,166.021,241.811,322.531,408.491,450.75
Payout Ratio41.05%50.84%60.63%70.42%80.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)421.98556.60706.94874.471,060.791,267.641,341.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)517.54522.44527.35
Year 2 PV (M)611.20622.84634.59
Year 3 PV (M)702.98723.16743.72
Year 4 PV (M)792.92823.41854.78
Year 5 PV (M)881.04923.60967.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,364.4527,637.8628,960.01
Equity Value (M)29,870.1231,253.3132,688.23
Shares Outstanding (M)1,003.311,003.311,003.31
Fair Value$29.77$31.15$32.58
Upside / Downside753.05%792.56%833.53%

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