Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

National Central Cooling Company PJSC (TABREED.AE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.55 - $39.53$37.05
Multi-Stage$12.79 - $14.02$13.39
Blended Fair Value$25.22
Current Price$2.87
Upside778.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.32%29.62%0.160.140.060.050.100.090.080.060.060.06
YoY Growth--14.95%130.64%6.54%-45.24%10.53%18.75%23.08%8.33%-6.19%427.07%
Dividend Yield--5.75%4.15%1.95%2.22%3.66%4.99%5.06%4.09%3.15%5.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)564.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)440.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)124.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)112.9970.6242.37
Cash Retained (M)124.35124.35124.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-112.99-70.62-42.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.3753.7481.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,841.962,841.962,841.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate4.65%4.65%4.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$33.55$37.05$39.53
Upside / Downside1,069.15%1,190.88%1,277.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)564.94601.66640.76682.41726.77774.01797.23
Payout Ratio77.99%80.39%82.79%85.20%87.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)440.58483.67530.51581.38636.63696.61737.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.65%4.65%4.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)457.83462.17466.51
Year 2 PV (M)475.32484.38493.51
Year 3 PV (M)493.07507.22521.65
Year 4 PV (M)511.07530.73550.94
Year 5 PV (M)529.34554.91581.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,887.9535,524.7537,224.19
Equity Value (M)36,354.5838,064.1539,838.25
Shares Outstanding (M)2,841.962,841.962,841.96
Fair Value$12.79$13.39$14.02
Upside / Downside345.72%366.68%388.43%

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