Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.80 - $37.71$31.55
Multi-Stage$46.15 - $50.64$48.35
Blended Fair Value$39.95
Current Price$43.36
Upside-7.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.71%13.25%1.821.721.611.441.350.811.031.030.920.82
YoY Growth--6.29%6.64%11.48%6.84%67.38%-21.81%0.45%11.74%11.63%56.81%
Dividend Yield--4.07%5.16%6.49%5.41%5.00%4.58%4.44%4.34%3.89%4.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,905.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,261.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,644.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,181.00738.13442.88
Cash Retained (M)2,644.002,644.002,644.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,181.00-738.13-442.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,463.001,905.882,201.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,731.251,731.251,731.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.851.101.27
LTM Dividend per Share1.881.881.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.851.101.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.732.983.16
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$25.80$31.55$37.71
Upside / Downside-40.50%-27.24%-13.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,905.005,845.955,787.495,729.625,672.325,615.605,784.06
Payout Ratio55.22%62.18%69.13%76.09%83.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,261.003,634.984,001.164,359.654,710.575,054.045,350.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.37%8.37%8.37%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,320.483,354.373,388.25
Year 2 PV (M)3,338.753,407.243,476.42
Year 3 PV (M)3,323.143,425.913,530.78
Year 4 PV (M)3,279.973,415.913,556.03
Year 5 PV (M)3,214.653,382.053,556.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)63,422.8266,725.3970,164.13
Equity Value (M)79,899.8283,710.8687,671.95
Shares Outstanding (M)1,731.251,731.251,731.25
Fair Value$46.15$48.35$50.64
Upside / Downside6.44%11.51%16.79%

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