Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

ShinMaywa Industries, Ltd. (7224.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,528.55 - $2,542.86$1,976.11
Multi-Stage$2,110.57 - $2,313.26$2,210.01
Blended Fair Value$2,093.06
Current Price$1,852.00
Upside13.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-11.62%9.70%49.4446.3943.8437.8139.7891.7148.5520.2120.6522.62
YoY Growth--6.59%5.80%15.97%-4.94%-56.63%88.91%140.19%-2.12%-8.70%15.44%
Dividend Yield--3.06%3.24%3.25%3.50%4.15%9.08%3.49%1.55%2.18%3.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,567.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,436.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,131.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,713.401,070.88642.53
Cash Retained (M)5,131.005,131.005,131.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,713.40-1,070.88-642.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,417.604,060.134,488.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.1066.1066.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share51.7161.4367.91
LTM Dividend per Share51.9851.9851.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share51.7161.4367.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend103.69113.41119.89
WACC / Discount Rate8.10%8.10%8.10%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Fair Value$1,528.55$1,976.11$2,542.86
Upside / Downside-17.47%6.70%37.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,567.008,758.478,954.219,154.339,358.939,568.099,855.14
Payout Ratio40.11%50.09%60.06%70.04%80.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,436.004,386.765,378.306,411.977,489.158,611.289,116.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.10%8.10%8.10%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Year 1 PV (M)4,018.284,057.974,097.66
Year 2 PV (M)4,512.704,602.304,692.77
Year 3 PV (M)4,928.105,075.595,225.99
Year 4 PV (M)5,272.505,483.945,701.67
Year 5 PV (M)5,553.265,833.016,123.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)115,216.97121,021.08127,056.78
Equity Value (M)139,501.81146,073.88152,898.79
Shares Outstanding (M)66.1066.1066.10
Fair Value$2,110.57$2,210.01$2,313.26
Upside / Downside13.96%19.33%24.91%

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