Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Jinjiang Shipping (Group) Co., Ltd. (601083.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.91 - $39.58$27.60
Multi-Stage$15.26 - $16.64$15.94
Blended Fair Value$21.77
Current Price$11.47
Upside89.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS190.11%0.00%0.400.590.620.100.160.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---31.92%-5.68%515.68%-35.03%7,899.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.22%5.98%5.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,486.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)528.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)957.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)297.25185.78111.47
Cash Retained (M)957.74957.74957.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-297.25-185.78-111.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)660.49771.96846.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,284.051,284.051,284.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.600.66
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.600.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate10.41%10.41%10.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.91$27.60$39.58
Upside / Downside73.55%140.65%245.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,486.271,582.881,685.771,795.341,912.042,036.322,097.41
Payout Ratio35.56%46.45%57.34%68.22%79.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)528.53735.22966.561,224.861,512.651,832.691,940.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.41%10.41%10.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)659.66665.92672.17
Year 2 PV (M)778.10792.92807.88
Year 3 PV (M)884.70910.10935.98
Year 4 PV (M)980.291,017.991,056.76
Year 5 PV (M)1,065.631,117.101,170.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,228.6615,964.2116,727.91
Equity Value (M)19,597.0520,468.2421,371.25
Shares Outstanding (M)1,284.051,284.051,284.05
Fair Value$15.26$15.94$16.64
Upside / Downside33.06%38.97%45.11%

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